Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top 10 free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.
The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.
Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.
Best Fits
Cubs
The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote Wednesday night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300M as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts did, he’s likely to surpass $150M. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.
Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? The Cubs should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157M in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200M+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.
Twins
The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported 10-year, $285M bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350M contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from the pitching staff should help in 2023, the Twins are behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota was already in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.
Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by its ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. The Twins are not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.
Braves
The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if it’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.
As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. The Braves are already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson have had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16M-$17M range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted Wednesday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.
Viable But Longer Shots
Dodgers
The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting its luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233M base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201M competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.
Red Sox
Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40M in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, the Sox have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot toward a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162M offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280M figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they did to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?
Seemingly Unlikely
Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!